Ebola - is a pandemic around the corner?

With an increasing number of cases and deaths of the Ebola virus in West Africa and the recent growing threat of spread to other countries, this post is long overdue. Here is what you need to know about Ebola, how and why it is spreading, and the future outlook for the virus.

What is the Ebola virus?

Signs & symptoms start 2 days – 3 weeks after contracting the virus. Early symptoms include a fever, sore throat, muscle pain and headaches, followed by vomiting, diarrhoea and rash, then decreased liver and kidney function. Internal and external bleeding may also occur. Death usually occurs around 6-16 days after symptoms begin, due to low blood pressure from fluid loss.

Image: Wikipedia

How is Ebola contracted?

The virus is spread by contact with blood and other bodily fluids of someone who is infected. This may also occur indirectly, by contact with a contaminated item.

How did the outbreak start?

The outbreak started in West Africa, with the first case being reported in March 2014 in Guinea. A week later, cases were reported in Liberia and Sierra Leone. In July, the first case was reported in Nigeria after a man travelled there from the Liberian capital. In August, the virus was then reported in Senegal. In the past, epidemics have not become a pandemic, as travel was less frequent. But now, there are around 6 million people travelling by plane everyday, meaning that the risk of a virus spreading around the world is much greater.

Image: BBC

Where has the virus spread?

In August, a Spanish priest died from Ebola in a hospital in Madrid, and in early October, a nurse who treated the priest contracted the virus and also died. In September, the Liberian Thomas Duncan flew to Dallas in Texas, via Brussels and Washington after trying to help women with Ebola in his home country. Days later, Duncan went to hospital reporting of fever and abdominal pain and was sent home despite telling the nurse he travelled from West Africa! After 2 days, he was admitted to hospital with the virus, and died on October 8^th. Since Duncan’s death, two nurses who treated him have tested positive for Ebola, despite precautionary measures. The day before the second nurse was diagnosed, she flew from Ohio to Texas through two international airports, despite having a fever.  Therefore, disease control specialists are being sent to Ohio to help monitor people she came into contact with. However, as the virus is not airborne, the risk to others on the flights is low but officials are trying to trace those on the flight.

How many have died?

The virus has killed nearly 4,500 people so far, with more cases and more deaths than all other outbreaks combined.

Image: CNN

What treatments are there for the virus?

There are no specific treatments available yet. Zmapp is an experimental drug that was effective on monkeys but tests on humans were less conclusive. The UK, US and Canada are currently trying to develop a vaccine, with the aim of 20,000 doses that could be used in West Africa in early 2015.

What is being done to prevent the spread of the virus?

According to an American group who is monitoring the spread of the disease, the UK is the third-most-likely country outside of Africa to “import” Ebola. Although there are no flights entering the UK directly from the worst affected areas of West Africa, there is still a risk. On October 14^th, London Heathrow airport began screening travellers from West Africa, and this will later be extended to Gatwick airport and the Eurostar. Passengers travelling from Sierra Leona, Guinea and Libreria will be referred to health workers to have their temperature taken and be questioned to establish whether they may have come into contact with anyone infected with Ebola. However, as the incubation period for symptoms is three weeks, it will be difficult to detect. The WHO say it may be more effective to screen people on exit from a country. America may take a more extreme approach, as some lawmakers are calling for a ban to travellers from West African countries hit hardest by Ebola. 

Image: The Guardian

What does the future look like for Ebola?

“I’ve just projected that about five weeks into the future and if current trends persist, we would be seeing not hundreds of cases per week, but thousands of cases per week and that is terribly disturbing” says Dr Dye of the World Health Organisation. The WHO are estimating 20,000 cases before the end, but this is described as optimistic by some scientists. The WHO are also saying it could be contained in six to nine months, but with 40% of deaths being over the last three weeks and cases increasing exponentially, just 20,000 cases seems unlikely.